Category: Innovation

Innovation

Future Work

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

Atari’s chief scientist Alan Kay made this statement about his company’s effort to build a truly personal computer in 1971, five years before the introduction of the Apple I home computer. Other variants of this saying date back to Greek philosopher Heraclitus (535-475 BC).

Without doubt, many technologies have dramatically altered the world. The aim of every startup is to create a new piece of future reality. However, from a technology and human renewal perspective, you may not be as interested in inventing the future as you are in understanding the future – so you can plan, reskill, stay relevant, and guide your children.

For a different slant, let’s flip the statement around.

The best way to invent my future is to predict it.

If you could somehow predict the future, then you’d have a shot at inventing your part in it. Is there a company today that has succeeded in consistently predicting and inventing the future? What can they teach us about anticipating future job skills?

Case Study

Online retailer Amazon was launched as an internet bookseller in 1994 by Jeff Bezos from his garage in Bellevue, WA. Four years later, he announced his intention to expand beyond books. From 2002-2018, the company introduced the following innovations.

The track record has been impressive. From household goods and groceries to entertainment and healthcare, Amazon has regularly extended itself every eight months, disrupting industry after industry at an astounding pace. Today this Seattle leviathan owns 49.1% of all online sales in the U.S. (followed by eBay, 6.6%; Apple, 3.9%; and Walmart, 3.9%).

The company has not balked at exploring leading-edge technologies like speech interfaces, drones, and automated self-service stores to deliver ever higher levels of service. Nor has it feared entrenched industries that it felt could be disrupted, such as healthcare and pharmacy.

Invention at Amazon exploits synergy. Order fulfillment and supply chain infrastructure for books led to cloud as a service, then powered the dramatic growth of products and services that leveraged each other. A virtuous cycle was created when buyer feedback improved seller responsiveness, which enhanced the buying experience, which attracted more buyers and more sales. Customer service is still at the heart of Amazon’s innovations today.

The More Important Question

When a reporter asked Amazon founder and über-entrepreneur Jeff Bezos about the secret to his success, Bezos gave three principles: (1) find the passion to invent; (2) think long-term; and (3) be very, very customer-centric, delighting them in surprising ways.

These principles are easy to understand. However, they are neither simple platitudes nor random thoughts. What’s most interesting is the underlying belief that binds them. In Bezos’s own words,

I very frequently get the question: “What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: “What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?” And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two – because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time… in our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection.

It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, “Jeff, I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher.” “I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.” Impossible.

And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.

This insight is profound. Amazon’s new products and services are always tied to customer needs that won’t change over time. As a result, the company is willing to invest significantly more resources because the bet is likely to pay off in the long run.

Insight to Foresight

You can apply this thinking to the future skills question. What skills and opportunities do you want to invest in? What areas of technology are likely not to change over the long term?

Here are three ideas.

Data

Data will stay relevant because it is foundational. Every new device or digital technology today and in the future will capture data. With mountains of data piling up in organizations, expertise in data collectors (sensors), algorithms, cleansing, validation, security, transmission, curation, storage and retrieval, audit, analysis, reporting, and prediction will continue to be in demand. One caveat is some functions like reporting may become partly or fully automated.

As a corollary, if regulatory, privacy, ethical, and other concerns can be addressed, information markets for data exchange will flourish. They will call for specialized skills like data science, pricing, and blockchain. Businesses will come to regard data as a mission-critical asset, so jobs related to data acquisition, management, governance, security, and analytics will be important.

Automation

Automation is another constant. Machines will continue to get smarter and more capable in easing employee workloads, providing decision support, anticipating needs, and generating unprecedented efficiencies and cost savings. Automation will become especially important in industries like healthcare that are facing both increasing demand and worker shortages.

Should you be worried about your job or career?

McKinsey found that <5% of occupations today can be automated in their entirety. However, in 60% of jobs, up to 30% of the activities that are part of those jobs could be automated. The nature of work will change. Demand will grow in jobs that require uniquely human skills like emotional intelligence, social interaction, creativity, management, and technological and higher cognitive skills. Upskilling may even be enabled by technology (e.g., a physician assistant using technology to perform some tasks that only the physician would handle previously).

Human skills will be important in: call centers; sales and support; patient care and patient advocacy; counseling; mentoring, consulting; managerial positions (including political); jobs requiring strategy, planning, and problem-solving; technical positions requiring creativity and problem-solving (software/hardware development, UX, QC, etc.); exception management (physician, nurse, financial analyst); sophisticated or complex judgment (business, legal, regulatory, ethics); social mission; and creativity (art, music, design, architecture).

Change

The only constant is change.

This adage reminds us that, with few exceptions, there are no certainties or guarantees in life. In technology, change is a constant. If you don’t know what’s coming around the bend, then control what you can and be flexible with the rest.

What can you control? Keep up with industry, societal, and socioeconomic trends. Understand yourself: your goals, personality, strengths and weaknesses, gifts and talents, experience, and life purpose. Develop at least a preliminary grasp of what you really want to do, where you want to go, and why. Then plan your ideal job two career steps into the future.

Being flexible means cultivating psychological resilience, which can be learned. Researchers recommend:

  • Act, to achieve small successes.
  • Add coping resources such as exercise, music, etc.
  • Embrace flexibility and the art of compromise.
  • Practice optimism.
  • Ask for support.
  • Avoid rumination and regret.
  • Regard setbacks as temporary.
  • Write a new story for yourself going forward.
  • Cultivate gratitude.
  • Remind yourself of past triumphs.
  • Pursue spirituality.

Do you have your own ideas about future work and the skills that will be needed? Please subscribe to The Renewable Human and leave a comment. Thanks very much for visiting!

Techno Angst

This post focuses on social pain, an important deterrent to human renewal that does not get much press or debate. Yet it might be the difference between seeing a future for yourself and seeing nothing.

One recent finding from neuroscience is that human isolation and ostracism lead to activation of the identical regions of the brain that light up on fMRI with physical pain. Researchers now call this phenomenon social pain, and it is just as real and intense as physical pain. In fact, your pain center even activates when you are empathizing with someone else’s social pain (hence, you really do feel their pain). Social pain can be associated with physical illness.

What are the factors that cause social pain? They are exclusion from social connections or activities, actual or perceived rejection, bullying, or loss of a loved one. In his fascinating talks on exclusion based on race, minority status, and culture, neuroscientist Dr. Steve Robbins, who immigrated from Vietnam as a child, described the tremendous impact of that social pain as a distraction and drag on mental performance. Multiple studies have found that chronic pain hurts job performance and costs companies millions of dollars annually in lost productivity.

pensive-senior

How does this relate to techno angst, our ambivalent feelings toward all things new and shiny? On one hand, we all love new technologies that allow us to do so many things we couldn’t do before (or even imagine we wanted to do). Technology has become genuinely indispensable.

On the other hand, we are starting to have fears (or at least gnawing concerns) about the obvious and not so obvious consequences, whether they be job displacement, loss of privacy, stunting of our kids’ social skills, inability to make sense of information overload, or worries about artificial intelligence.

I would suggest this causes social pain. In the next few decades, a large part of the population may start to realize they live on the wrong side of the digital divide. Facing constant technological change and trying to survive in a society seeking tech nirvana, they feel helpless, out of control, and increasingly disenfranchised. This leads to exclusion, isolation, and social pain.

Sometimes it takes a turn towards violence. In the Luddite movement of the early 19th century, displaced textile workers destroyed factory automation equipment and sent death threats to plant managers. Tensions subsided in 1817 only after six years of turmoil.

Like chronic pain, social pain throws a heavy shadow over behavior and performance. Have you ever found yourself isolated in a totally unfamiliar situation where you didn’t know the rules or expectations? Sometimes this happens with a new job or travel to a different culture. Social pain can handicap you as you strive to learn new rules, to integrate successfully. It can even become a self-fulfilling reason for poor employee performance.

Social and medical factors are often inextricably linked. Healthcare is currently focused on the Social Determinants of Health (SDOH). Practitioners, payers, and government agencies have recognized that environmental and social conditions like neighborhoods, income, education, social networks, and many other factors play as much of a role in a person’s health as their medical condition.

The situation is similar with tech-driven job displacement. When implementing a program to reskill employees, the implementer will have to address the invisible social pain of technological isolation so that employees believe they can achieve parity and be part of the new world.

What can be done?

One approach is to pair an employee with a peer who is willing to act as a mentor, someone who has been able to adapt successfully under the same circumstances. When my healthcare system adopted an electronic medical record years ago, some physicians understandably had real difficulty with change.

Although it took time, mentorship turned out to be the most effective option as it was informal, practical, and based on a supportive relationship. It gave the physicians hope, accountability, and an attainable role model.

Online help forums are very popular precisely because experienced veterans can mentor and guide newcomers on an almost infinite number of topics, from playing video games to photography to home repairs.

Another strategy is to break up the reskilling into smaller pieces and have employees begin with easy first steps that achieve early success. This starts to dismantle the beliefs causing social pain, which improves learning and performance, and builds confidence.

Many books and online sites deal with the more general topic of innovation and change management.

Please subscribe to The Renewable Human and leave a comment. Thanks very much for visiting!

Innovating the User

Welcome to the first post of The Renewable Human blog! Our focus will be on the human impact of technology and the important role of personal renewal.

Tidal Waves: the New Norm

In the past decade, I have witnessed an incredible tidal wave of innovation in information technology, digital health, virtual care, mobile devices, user interfaces (AR/VR, voice, BCI), remote sensors, data science, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, automation, 3D printing, blockchain, nanotherapy and nanorobotics, quantum computing, and smart homes, cars, and even toothbrushes. The list goes on and on.

This digital tidal wave has crashed onto the shores of business, producing online and mobile commerce, information ubiquity, social media and influencer marketing, global outsourcing, virtual teams, open innovation, crowdsourcing, risk-sharing, and the gig economy. Want ratings on a product or a vendor? Not a problem. Medicines online? No problem. Delivery by drone in 24 hours? No problem.

At this point, I’d whisper in your ear: “But wait, there’s more!”

Another tidal wave is rolling in on the heels of Silicon Valley. We carbon life forms are seeing the dawn of a Carbon Valley, a new age in cancer immunotherapy, genomics, gene editing, and personalized medicine, AI-powered drug design, vaccines, dementia therapy, electroceuticals, and digital therapeutics. Need a new kidney? The lab will 3D bioprint one for you.

How about other fields of research? Tidal waves are building in agri-tech and food engineering (lab-grown meat, anyone?), renewable energy and water technology (pulling water out of thin air), and materials science (e.g., plasmonic materials). One day you’ll buy an invisibility cloak at Nordstrom (but alas, you won’t know if it looks good on you). And who wouldn’t want to spend a week or two on the moon or on Mars?

The ocean of possibilities seems unlimited. I had thought the only thing sure to stay in the realm of sci-fi was time travel. My bad. In February 2018, physicists achieved a minuscule reversal in time using a quantum computer.

Glitches and Gotchas

Of course, it hasn’t all been smooth. Glittery advances have caused Godzilla-sized disruptions. In fact, fissures are starting to appear in industrial norms, societal infrastructure, legal, regulatory, and ethical frameworks, politics, and social interactions. Even our basic understanding of humanness is being challenged by AI.

Some have called this the Fourth Industrial Revolution of the modern era, the first three being (1) the Financial-Agricultural revolution; (2) the Industrial-Technical revolution; and (3) the Digital revolution. Industry 4.0 is a mashup of nanotech, alternative energy & fuel systems, biotech, genomics, materials technologies, and telecom systems.

Revolutions are messy. Traditionally, science and technology jumped forward, then consumers and regulators kicked the tires. Once we gave a thumbs up, technology would jump ahead again. But humans needed time to ponder, to discuss, to form an opinion, to plan if necessary.

Unfortunately, the global rate of innovation is not linear but exponential. As change accelerates, we have less time and less ability to understand or test implications. Meanwhile, technology pushes ahead with or without a regulatory, ethical, or moral framework. One byproduct is a volume and complexity of knowledge that has become progressively unmanageable (e.g., the growing backlog at the U.S. Patent Office).

This crisis has raised existential concerns about the unfettered growth of scientific and technological prowess, and what it means for our future and the future of our children.

  • AI: Prominent thinkers like Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking (d. 2018), and Bill Gates have pointed out the potential misuse and danger of AI. Although AI will improve our lives, what worries them is the role AI will play in infrastructure systems like the electrical power grid. If AI makes a mistake or is hacked, lives could be endangered. AI could also be used for social manipulation, invasion of privacy, and invisible discrimination.
  • Automation: a 2017 McKinsey report estimated as many as 400-800M people worldwide could lose their jobs to automation by 2030. Jobs like data processing that require predictable, repetitive, manual actions could disappear, whereas jobs like nursing that require people skills would survive. Perhaps we need to rethink whether we’re really teaching tomorrow’s skills to the adults of tomorrow.
  • Gene editing: In November 2018 Chinese scientist He Jiankui ignited a firestorm of controversy by using the CRISPR gene editing technique to alter the DNA of twin human embryos in an attempt to prophylax against their father’s HIV. Recently a new study found those twin girls will sadly lose about two years of life each due to their edited DNA, not to mention pass it to offspring. What effects does genetic experimentation have on diversity and the resiliency of the human gene pool? Are we edging closer to a eugenic nightmare?

These debates show us the nature and size of the barriers individual inventions must overcome. For automation, the barrier to adoption is low, with the focus on solving the fallout. Helping displaced workers learn new skills turns out to be a win-win. In contrast, genetic editing has cracked open an ethical Pandora’s box.

The collision of incredible promise and unforeseen peril has locked many people into a kind of mental paralysis, like a deer in the headlights. This disruption paralysis affects both companies and individuals.

young-sprouts

Renewal: Means to a Goal

With technology disruption inevitable, our personal worlds will change more often than we’d like. How do we find the path that’s best when times are increasingly uncertain?

This difficult question has as many answers as people asking. I’ve had a chance to talk with a few of them.

  • A young college student in bioengineering: “Can you give me advice on what jobs won’t be obsolete in 10 or 20 years? Where should I begin?”
  • A new physician: “Will traditional clinical practice be viable in the long run, and if not, would a startup be a better option?”
  • An older physician about to retire: “How hard was it to launch a second career after you retired?”
  • A highly successful senior business executive: “I want to do something more meaningful. What do you think about healthcare?”

The common thread is the perceived need and desire for self renewal.

What is self renewal? Self-awareness, active curiosity about industry and societal trends and opportunities, creativity, adaptability, flexibility, focus, willingness to act, serendipity, urgency, and discipline all come to mind. On the flip side are honest feedback and reality testing. Perhaps the 3 R’s of renewal, each at a different level, are rebirth, reinvention, and reskilling.

And the benefits? Personal transformation can improve your relevance and perhaps help you find greater meaning in life — whether it was triggered (by obsolescence, life events, or retirement) or targeted (aiming two steps into the future). An increasingly complex and uncertain world forces us to learn renewal as an adaptive skill.

Is it possible to thrive no matter what the future brings or how fast it arrives? What would it take? I hope to explore these and other ideas with you in future posts. Please subscribe to The Renewable Human and leave a comment!